Monday, October 20, 2008

A few kind words for social engineering



The following thoughtful discussion of the beneficial effects of social engineering has been on hold, pending a better way to post the graph. Certainly, neither the author of the piece nor I condone abortion. Abortion is a great evil... as are state execution, war and genocide.

From 1979 to 1990 the annual rate increased by 14.2%. If the rate had not increased during those 11 years, approximately 740,000 abortions would have been prevented. From 1990 to 2000, the annual rate decreased by 34%. If the rate had not decreased as it did, approximately 2.3 million more children would have been aborted, but instead are alive today.

The decline in abortions in the '90's did not happen because of any candidate's public stance as "pro-life", nor because elected officials did anything to directly prevent them. The decline happened because pregnant women decided to keep their babies. Undoubtedly there are many factors that affected these decisions, but it is reasonable to conclude that one important factor was that favorable economic and social conditions gave these women hope that they could take care of their babies.

The responsibility for making abortion legal comes directly from the Supreme Court, and cannot be changed by elected officials. The Supreme Court almost never reverses itself, but even if it did reverse Roe-v-Wade, abortion would not immediately become illegal. Legality would then be determined separately by each state government.

The other possibility is a constitutional amendment passed by 2/3 of both houses of Congress and ratified by 3/4 of the state legislatures. Given current American culture, a constitutional amendment has almost no chance.

So, the only real way for voters to prevent abortions is to focus on the other life issues and elect candidates who are committed to the people's welfare. Rejecting candidates only because they profess "pro-choice" results in the election of candidates who, once elected, neglect or ignore the other life issues.

Tabular data as reported by CDC


1973 615,831
1974 763,476
1975 854,853
1976 988,267
1977 1,079,430
1978 1,157,776
1979 1,251,921
1980 1,297,606
1981 1,300,760
1982 1,303,980
1983 1,268,987
1984 1,333,521
1985 1,328,570
1986 1,328,112
1987 1,353,671
1988 1,371,285
1989 1,396,658
1990 1,426,247
1991 1,388,937
1992 1,359,148
1993 1,330,414
1994 1,267,415
1995 1,210,883
1996 1,225,937
1997 1,186,039
1998 1,008,602*
1999 958,169*
2000 939,285*
2001 944,790*
2002 950,478*
2003 942,116*

* Numbers reported by CDC for these years did not include data from several states.The numbers shown here have been corrected to include data from those states.

Those states were:
1998 - CA, AK, OK, NH 1999 - CA, AK, OK, NH
2000 - CA, AK, NH 2001 - CA, AK, NH
2002 - CA, AK, NH 2003 - CA, NH, WV

2 comments:

Patrick Kinsale said...

Should we not as a society still outlaw abortion? Of course, they will continue to take place because of those who flout the law. But there will be far, far fewer.

thetimman said...

If you are a little sore from all that twisting and bending you did to rationalize an un-Catholic position as Catholic, take two Advil.